December 28, 2022

Is your confidence like the sun or like the moon?

I was recently discussing the business outlook for 2023 with a colleague when they suddenly asked me: “Matt, how do you always have confidence for the future?” 

“You don’t?” I asked in return.

To which they responded: “Some market experts are predicting good things, some bad things, and both have logic to their arguments. It makes me feel like I’m riding a nonstop, up-and-down roller coaster between confidence and anxiety.”

“That’s because you only draw your confidence from verifiable evidence. But do you really need evidence to have confidence?” I could see from the coworker’s face that they were utterly perplexed.  

Compared to a vacuum of uncertainty, having answers and evidence to create a solid picture of the future naturally puts people more at ease, which is why we turn to “outlooks” and “predictions”. But I compare this kind of confidence to the moon – it relies on the light of others to shine, and therefore flickers in and out.   

We also make the incorrect assumption that some people can predict the future. Even if these predictions give you renewed faith, they will be wrong half the time. So how can you make them the source of your confidence?

For me, confidence in the future is a proactive choice, an attitude. Because I “choose” faith, I can maintain this faith no matter how the market turns, which pushes me to see, think, and do a little more in the area I’m working on. My choice of faith is a constant source of energy to keep moving and exploring forward. 

When things get rough, those without faith will promptly bow out, leaving all opportunity to those who decided to stick it out. When you hold onto an opportunity tightly until you achieve something, you will develop more confidence to challenge yourself again, which creates a positive cycle. Your confidence becomes like the sun in that it can generate its own light regardless of what’s happening around it. 

This past year, fierce competition, rising interest rates, and several catastrophic events in the crypto space have led not just to shrinking capital but shrinking confidence for the future. That’s why it’s so important to me to share my ideas with those closest to me, in the hopes that everyone can greet the new year with their own sun of faith burning bright.     

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